Bad News: The "Surge" is succeeding

Chuckiechan · March 11th, 2007, 12:39 PM

Many news reporters are writing books about the administrations failure. What will they write if Iraq doesn't fall into chaos?

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn...030901839.html

Theophylact · March 11th, 2007, 01:05 PM

Look: If General Petraeus thinks the "surge" has only a 25% chance of succeeding, why ask what we should feel in the unlikely case of success?

For the record, I hope it does work, since any other outcome would be a worse result for peace, stability, and US interests. But I'm sure not more optimistic than the General.

Theophylact · March 11th, 2007, 01:14 PM

Your blind optimism reminds me of this guy:

Quote:

Black Knight: Have at you!
Arthur: You are indeed brave, sir knight, but the fight is mine.
Black Knight: Oh, had enough eh?
King Arthur: [after Arthur's cut off both of the Black Knight's arms] Look, you stupid bastard. You've got no arms left.
Black Knight: Yes I have.
King Arthur: Look!
Black Knight: It's just a flesh wound.

Chuckiechan · March 11th, 2007, 01:19 PM

I think because like global warming, a lot of people have their reputations attached to a particular outcome. A General always does anyway, but I'm referring to media pundits and politicians.

Personally, I think a large part of the success is due to insurgents laying low in the belief that we are leaving soon, one way or the other, and all they need to do is wait us out.

If we (and Iraq) are lucky, this retreat will give the Iraqi's time to get the strength needed to fight a full strength Iranian insurgency. If we aren't lucky, then I hope we have to fortitude to "dissuade" Iran from getting involved and leave Iraq alone.

Pessimism over what we had the ability to do about Hitler let to WW2. I wouldn't make jokes about people who believe we can prevail.

Theophylact · March 11th, 2007, 01:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chuckiechan

Pessimism over what we had the ability to do about Hitler let to WW2. I wouldn't make jokes about people who believe we can prevail.

It wasn't pessimism about our ability to stop Hitler that led to World War II; it was unwillingness to take the necessary measures when he was weak (for instance, when he remilitarized the Rheinland in violation of the Treaty of Versailles). And notice that I'm not making jokes about Petraeus, whose reputation is on the line, along with the lives of his troops. I'm making jokes about armchair generals like you for thinking that belief is enough for success.

Chuckiechan · March 11th, 2007, 01:55 PM

Quote:

I'm making jokes about armchair generals like you for thinking that belief is enough for success.

The only belief this "Armchair General" has is that we have a winnable war to fight. You seem to think my view is a joke.

Since Armchair Generals are disqualified from offering an opinion, where's your authority?

MTAtech · March 11th, 2007, 02:59 PM

Have we defined goals and benchmarks for those goals? If not, what convinces you of winable?

As Theo points out, the surge is a long-shot - like Lotto. Sure, it is possible to win Lotto, just not likely. There's an outside chance that the surge will succeed. However, it's more likely it will fail and cost more lives in the process. I wouldn't bet my life (or other's lives) on either winning Lotto or the surge succeeding.

Chuckiechan · March 11th, 2007, 04:42 PM

Quote:

I wouldn't bet my life (or other's lives) on either winning Lotto or the surge succeeding.

I'm surprised you get out of bed in the morning.

A free nation has to step up and fight tyranny. I know that's old school thinking, but I still believe it.

You are stuck with two choices: Wait and see if it succeeds, or hope the Democrats kill it before it does.

Creatures · March 11th, 2007, 05:00 PM

iraq is now stuck in a civil war, america did it's job, you can leave now, the media maybe see this as "cut and run" or giving up, but that's just stupid, you won.

there are two ways, stay there and try to fix the problem you caused (that's my way, because you started it, you finish it, after 3 or more years i dont really care, you have been warned, you didnt listen, therefore your soldiers are dying!)
the second way would be pack your bags and let them kill each other

the actual war against saddam and his government is over (mission accomplished) but because of that it's an even bigger mess down there.

what do we learn from this? i guess nothing because most of you think the war was justified!

Creatures

MTAtech · March 11th, 2007, 05:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chuckiechan

A free nation has to step up and fight tyranny.

I do that every day when I argue against the Bush Administration.