Hurricane Storm Isaac - 2012 Atlantic Tropical Weather (Updated)

**RobRich** · August 23rd, 2012, 03:28 PM

Current NOAA forecast discussion:

Originally Posted by NOAA/NWS/NHC

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ISAAC WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 66.4 WEST. ISAAC IS NOW
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/H...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ISAAC WILL CONTINUE TO PASS SOUTH OF
PUERTO RICO TODAY...AND BE NEAR THE SOUTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC AND HAITI ON FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND
ISAAC COULD BECOME A HURRICANE AS IT NEARS THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
AND HAITI. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS
CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING ISAAC.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM
FROM THE CENTER. NOAA BUOY 42060 RECENTLY REPORTED 1-MINUTE MEAN
WINDS OF 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...AND A WIND GUST OF 47 MPH...76 KM/HR.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.

Current NOAA forecast track model:

**nickslick74** · August 23rd, 2012, 03:33 PM

Looks like it's (currently) heading for your house Rob!

**RobRich** · August 23rd, 2012, 03:43 PM

Current CMC forecast track model:

**RobRich** · August 23rd, 2012, 03:45 PM

Current consensus forecast track model:

**RobRich** · August 23rd, 2012, 03:52 PM

Originally Posted by nickslick74

Looks like it's (currently) heading for your house Rob!

It is likely heading to the gulf coast, but the question is where? There are models not following current consensus, but they are instead producing more westward tracking. Take the UKM for example.

Hurricane Storm Isaac - 2012 Atlantic Tropical Weather (Updated)-7.track.current.png

Hurricane Storm Isaac - 2012 Atlantic Tropical Weather (Updated)-7.windswath.png

Regardless, even if Isaac moves along the west coast of Florida without a direct landfall here, the Tampa and Nature Coast areas are likely going to get strong tropical storm to possibly hurricane conditions. It is going to have to move rather far offshore to the west for us to avoid the effects.

**RobRich** · August 23rd, 2012, 03:58 PM

Lots of short- and mid-term forecast track models:

**RobRich** · August 23rd, 2012, 07:31 PM

Updated short- and mid-term forecast track models:

**Dude111** · August 24th, 2012, 08:09 AM

I hope your gonba be OK rob!!!! (And everyone else)

**RobRich** · August 24th, 2012, 09:15 AM

Updated short- and mid-term forecast track models:

**RobRich** · August 24th, 2012, 09:20 AM

Current GFDL forecast track model:

**RobRich** · August 24th, 2012, 09:22 AM

Current GFS forecast track model:

**RobRich** · August 24th, 2012, 09:23 AM

Current consensus forecast track model:

**nickslick74** · August 26th, 2012, 11:02 AM

Looks like it should pass a little to the west of ya Rob.

**Tramp429** · August 26th, 2012, 06:27 PM

tornadoes and flooding are the main concern. I'm within walking distance from old tampa bay

**pickel** · August 26th, 2012, 07:00 PM

Moving to the west. Here ya go , New Orleans !!!!!!!!!!!!!!

**SoloCamo** · August 26th, 2012, 11:38 PM

Seems out little cove area on west avoided it once again, thankfully.

Surprised I didn't see this thread until today!

**RobRich** · August 27th, 2012, 10:14 AM

Current HWRF forecast track model:

**RobRich** · August 27th, 2012, 10:16 AM

Current GFS forecast track model:

**RobRich** · August 27th, 2012, 10:19 AM

Updated short- and mid-term forecast track models:

**RobRich** · August 27th, 2012, 10:22 AM

Current NOAA forecast discussion:

Originally Posted by NOAA/NWC/NHC

000
WTNT24 KNHC 270850
TCMAT4

TROPICAL STORM ISAAC FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092012
0900 UTC MON AUG 27 2012

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO
MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA.

A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO MORGAN
CITY LOUISIANA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM EAST OF SABINE PASS TO
WEST OF INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA.

THE HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE FROM EAST OF DESTIN
TO INDIAN PASS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED ALONG THE EAST
COAST OF FLORIDA NORTH OF OCEAN REEF AND FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO DESTIN FLORIDA...INCLUDING
METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...AND LAKE MAUREPAS

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* INTRACOASTAL CITY TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM OCEAN REEF SOUTHWARD ON THE EAST COAST
AND FROM TARPON SPRINGS SOUTHWARD ON THE WEST COAST
* FLORIDA KEYS...INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS AND FLORIDA BAY
* EAST OF DESTIN FLORIDA TO THE SUWANNEE RIVER
* INTRACOASTAL CITY TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST OF SABINE PASS TO WEST OF INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT
OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.2N 84.2W AT 27/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.
34 KT.......210NE 210SE 80SW 180NW.
12 FT SEAS..200NE 200SE 180SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.2N 84.2W AT 27/0900Z
AT 27/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.9N 83.7W

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 26.2N 85.9W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 80SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 27.6N 87.8W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.
34 KT...180NE 150SE 80SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 28.8N 89.1W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...180NE 150SE 80SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 29.7N 90.1W...INLAND
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...180NE 150SE 90SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 31.2N 91.1W...INLAND
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 150SE 60SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 31/0600Z 34.0N 92.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 01/0600Z 38.0N 91.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.2N 84.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN